exactly, it wont matter which one is the better machine or which one has the better graphics, internet capabilities etc, sony have the consumer market on consoles and that will be enough to boost there sales from the start.
some expectations are for the PS3 to have taken the next gen market by 2010, up until that point they will be playing catch up to the 360 due to its earlier release, however they will continue to close the gap each year by outselling the 360 marginally
This is true in some aspects...the PSP failed compared to where Nintendo has owned the protable market. Also, nintendo, microsoft, and sony all own other companies and produce other products. They are all making lots of money off different things than console systems. Did you know Nintendo owns pokemon and digimon (or whatever they are?) and have made tons of money off it?
The thing is, I don't really see where technology is cutting edge here. I mean CRT technology is making a comeback and it is going to kick the crap out of all that HD LCD, DLP crap that is out and way over expensive at the moment.
Right now with our satchurated market of bloated technology, format wars, next high end standard wars, etc nintendo decided to do something no other company is doing. They are basing their system off a concept, not off a technology. The concept is, how to make playing video games unique, fun, and revolutionary. They used technology that is already established.
What happens when blu ray fails? its going to be just like mini disk, beta max, laser disc, etc. Is the consumer market really ready for something like blu ray technology? Are movies actually going to take advantage of a full capacity blu ray dual layer disc? IMHO, blu ray has no immediate place in the market, and it will have to prove itself for it to become successful.
The answer to these questions is no one knows. Sony is riding on this technology, and it could end up being a poor choice. Nintendo has a reputation of making a great product. My 8bit nintendo from 1987 still works to this day. I have gone through 3 PS2s, and the manager of the local game stop down the street from me, told me he as gone through 8 PS2s (but he probably plays games more than I do, being a manager of a game stop and all).
Plus if you play all three systems side by side by side you will see that they all perform in a similar manner. Sure the 360 and the PS3 may look a bit better, but the Wii isn't going to be 8 bit graphics or anything. I would compare it to your average gaming PC right now. I mean RE4 for the game cube was real nice looking, and its going to be better than that.