Tera Era?

How many more years do you thank before the Tera Era (in processors)?

  • Within the next 5 years

    Votes: 9 18.4%

  • Within the next 10 years

    Votes: 12 24.5%

  • Within the next 20 years

    Votes: 11 22.4%

  • Within the next 30 years

    Votes: 5 10.2%

  • Within the next 40 years

    Votes: 1 2.0%

  • Within the next 50 years

    Votes: 4 8.2%

  • Not in your lifetime

    Votes: 10 20.4%
  • Total voters
    49
Something people don't seem to be taking into account with their guesses is that the measure of hertz increases exponentially, so getting from megahertz to gigahertz is a hell of a lot easier than getting from zettahertz to yottahertz
 
SC7 said:
Where do you get a single 1TB HDD? Please link me to one of these, cause I can't find more than one 750GB HDD. And two doesn't count, because that would require two processors, which really isn't like a one terahertz processor. As far as this goes, it depends on what you view as "reaching" one terahertz. I could see some university and IBM reaching one terahertz with some special fabrication process in the next 10, even possibly 5 years. However, I think it'll be many years until this reaches desktops and average level computing, or even servers. Perhaps the military and NASA may be the first to see this technology.
Click to expand...
http://www.lacie.com/products/product.htm?pid=10128
It's external though.
 
monkeysims said:
1THz CPU will NEVER happen (at least i dont think so)
Click to expand...
It will eventually, but right now cpu companies are more focused on the efficiency of their current speeds as seen by the drop in frequencies by intel. However in order to create something that can hit and maintain that frequency silicon is pretty much out of the question. A few months ago I read an article about them using synthetic diamonds and they were hitting 10ghz pretty easily. Now its not going to be as simple as just upping the speeds like cpu manufacturers have been doing, it will take awhile, and take a few major improvements before they will start working for those speeds. For example on of the bigger steps that intel made was moving to a 65nm process, shortening the wavelength, which will have to keep happening to make it possible. And about the silicon it just can't take it, thats where the synthetic diamonds have the upper hand, since they deal with heat better. Anywho, you can't even begin to imagine speeds like that, however it doesn't really mean that things will be running much faster. It will make a difference but think about the improvements in software that have been happening, everything with computers seems to progress pretty evenly with the others, so the cpu's of the future, which may be running exponentially faster, will be doing exponentially more. Think about it with a 1thz cpu, you would probably have at least 256 to 512gb of ram, and hdd would be closer to a few exobytes, everything will be completely different when that happens.
As for when it happens that is up to the cpu companies, do they want to start focusing on effiency like amd has been doing, and intel is now doing, or do they want to focus on speed, like intel was previously doing, it could be 10 years, 100 years, or 1000 years, no one can predict that.
 
monkeysims said:
1THz CPU will NEVER happen (at least i dont think so)
Click to expand...

That's probably like people back in 1975 saying that 3 GHz will never happen.

I wonder how the processor caches will be if we ever hit 1 THz. Probably some where like 1 or 2 GB caches :D
 
Mattu said:
That's probably like people back in 1975 saying that 3 GHz will never happen.

I wonder how the processor caches will be if we ever hit 1 THz. Probably some where like 1 or 2 GB caches :D
Click to expand...
And how long the pipelines would be :).
 
monkeysims said:
1THz CPU will NEVER happen (at least i dont think so)
Click to expand...
It seems that way now, since were moving away from the high clock speeds, and moving to more cores. I think that the clock speeds will continue to inrease slightly, however i think that the future will be trying to have as many cores per CPU as possible.
 
David Sarnoff CEO of RCA (1955) said:
"Television will never be a medium of entertainment"
Click to expand...

You never know with technology, they are devoping new busses and caches everyfew years that can handle oodles more traffic. Technology is growing exponentially.

I wouldnt be suprised if the "Tera Era" hits within the next 10-20 yrs. It must be easy enough to make programs and games that would be able to make use of it (think of rendering programs like maya and the like).
 
Epic BUMP :D

I found this old thread of mine that I started a little over 4 years ago and now I just wanted to see what you all thought of the subject matter since it's now 2010.

I know it seems like were moving toward multiple cores today and the "speed" of processors in GHz's hasn't really changed much in 5 years. So my prediction about this whole "Tera Era" thing is that maybe by the end of this century, we'll (and I say "we'll" like we'll all still be alive :P) probably see processors with maybe 20 or more cores that's only pushing about 20 GHz max.
 
Mattu said:
Epic BUMP :D

I found this old thread of mine that I started a little over 4 years ago and now I just wanted to see what you all thought of the subject matter since it's now 2010.

I know it seems like were moving toward multiple cores today and the "speed" of processors in GHz's hasn't really changed much in 5 years. So my prediction about this whole "Tera Era" thing is that maybe by the end of this century, we'll (and I say "we'll" like we'll all still be alive :P) probably see processors with maybe 20 or more cores that's only pushing about 20 GHz max.
Click to expand...

honestly, I can't see the tera thing happening for a good while yet, not until companies start saying they need more power per core to make the programs they want, rather than more cores, which isn't going to be any time soon I don't think
 
Man, going through this thread, people thought TB HDs at $750 were epic. Now they're $60-70! I personally think that we will have faster processors, but that the speed will increase slowly compared to number of cores. People multitask a whole lot more than they used to, probably mostly thanks to easier ways to switch between apps than you could 16-17 years ago. Golly, we could have dual-core smartphones! We have hex-core CPUs now, I think I've seen a dual-core GPU, and the chained GPUs (SLI and such) are doing powerful stuff.
Also, could someone explain to me the PowerPC architecture? From the "they use special metals and run cooler" post somewhere, my curiosity has arisen.
 
I think that within 100 years we'll have 10 GHz processors with 100 pea-sized cores that runs at 3 TFLOPS. And the word size would be at least 256-bit. And we would have 1 TB of RAM. And a petabyte of hard drive space. And the whole thing would be as small as a laptop. This is the future of the computer!
 
to be honest (*puts on flame retardant suit*) i don't even know that desktop computers will even last that long. i personally think that the future is handheld devices. desktops will definitely keep going for a while but once handheld devices can handle things like playing full HD (and higher eventually :D) content on televisions (possibly even in 3D) and being able to work in multiple environments such as at home AND at the office (meaning i can use it at home to watch tv or watch movies and then take it to the office and use it to run my monitor and use it to do the things i need to do at work) and can run most games, they'll basically replace any need for large desktop computers. servers and gaming (and other things i'm sure) will probably be the things that'll keep them around the longest. not saying i hope this will happen :o but i kind of think it might eventually.

of course, that is just my speculation :)
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top